Latest · November 11, 2026Reuters reported a record 37 tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in October, and Ukrainian drones set fire to Russia's second-largest refinery at Kirishi on Nov 9, even as Brent rebounded to about $93/bbl after Monday's sharp slide.
Background: how we got here
US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026 set off a regional war. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, and it has not reopened to normal traffic, cutting off most Gulf oil and LNG exports; the IEA calls it the largest supply disruption in oil-market history. Retaliatory strikes damaged Gulf energy assets: Qatar lost ~17% of its LNG capacity for 3-5 years at Ras Laffan, Israel hit South Pars, and Saudi (Ras Tanura, SAMREF, Abqaiq, Jazan), Emirati (Fujairah, Shah, Habshan) and Kuwaiti (Mina al-Ahmadi) facilities were hit. An 8 April ceasefire and a 17 June US-Iran MoU briefly revived traffic and pushed oil back to pre-war levels, but the truce collapsed on 7-8 July. Since then the US has blockaded Iranian ports (from 14 July), Iran runs a permit-and-toll regime, and tanker attacks continue. The second front is the Red Sea: the Houthis declared a ban on Saudi shipping from 20 July, struck tankers and the Jazan refinery, and seized Mocha on 10 September. Drones from Iraq hit Abqaiq (27 July) and shut the East-West bypass pipeline (10-11 September); it restarted at reduced rates around 22 September and by 28 September flows had recovered to roughly 3.5 mb/d, about half its 7 mb/d capacity. Saudi Arabia has also offset the outage by selling roughly 60 million barrels for ship-to-ship transfer at Sohar, Oman, pushing STS capacity there and at Fujairah to its limit and tightening the VLCC market. In the Black Sea, Ukrainian strikes on Russian ports and refineries (Baltic ports in March, Novorossiysk/CPC, Tuapse, Moscow) and Turkey briefly halted Novorossiysk-bound transit permits in early August before resuming them two days later. Policy responses include a record 400 mb IEA stock release (US 172 mb), the UAE's exit from OPEC (1 May) and US consideration of diesel export curbs. US LNG exports are at records as new trains start up (Golden Pass, Corpus Christi Stage 3), and Panama Canal and Trans Mountain flows to Asia have risen. As of 1 October Brent was around $99-100 (pre-crisis ~$72.5) and TTF ~€73/MWh (pre-crisis ~€32). Iran offered at the UN to reopen the strait within a week if the US lifted its naval blockade; Trump rejected the offer on 26 September. By late September, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs estimated regional oil flows had recovered close to pre-war volumes even as tanker attacks and reporting gaps persist, while Trump and Iran continued trading claims over sanctions relief and the sequencing of any reopening.
November 10, 2026 · shipping reported
Reuters: record 37 tanker attacks in Strait of Hormuz in October
Reuters reported Nov 10, citing Washington Institute for Near East Policy data, that as many as 37 vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz in October, a record for the war. The figure adds to the IMO's separate count of at least 130 commercial-vessel incidents and 25 seafarers killed in the Middle East since the war began, underlining continued risk to shipping even as oil prices eased earlier in the week.
November 9, 2026 · policy confirmed
IMO warns of mounting seafarer toll from attacks on shipping near Hormuz, Red Sea, Black Sea
The International Maritime Organization said at least 130 incidents involving commercial vessels have been confirmed since the Iran war began, with 25 seafarers killed in the Middle East, most recently aboard the tanker Velos Sapphire. It also condemned Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab and Russian attacks on shipping and ports supporting Ukraine's Black Sea corridor, and called on member states to keep shipping lanes open and avoid unlawful acts endangering vessels and crews.
November 9, 2026 · policy reported
Russia takes ownership of two Chinese heavy-lift ships that supplied its sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project
The heavy-lift carriers Bright and Glory, previously owned by China's Guangdong Nan Feng Shipping and used to ferry modules for Novatek's sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project, now show as Russian-flagged and owned by Russia's Eco Shipping LLC on AIS and the Equasis vessel registry. The ships had sailed with transponders off across the Northern Sea Route in September to deliver power-generation modules to the project's Utrenniy terminal; bringing them under Russian ownership gives Moscow more direct control of the project's shipping logistics as it tries to keep LNG trains running under Western sanctions.
November 8, 2026 · policy reported
Iraq says it reached understandings with US to keep oil exports moving through Hormuz
Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein told Al Jazeera that Baghdad has reached understandings with Washington to keep Iraqi crude moving through the Strait of Hormuz via a shipping lane near Oman. He put Iraq's combined losses from the Iran war and the export disruptions at $60 billion. Iraqi energy officials said exports recovered in October to about 3.5 million barrels a day, up from 2.65 million bpd in September, after a sharp drop the month before. Reuters could not independently confirm the terms of the arrangement.
November 8, 2026 · policy confirmed
Egypt deepens gas cuts to fertilizer plants to 33% as import costs squeeze budget
Abu Qir Fertilizers disclosed to the Egyptian Exchange that its natural gas allocation was cut 33%, effective Nov 8, up from a 20% cut announced about a week earlier; KIMA and other producers reported similar reductions. Egypt's government has been diverting gas away from industry to cut costly LNG imports as wartime energy prices strain its budget, alongside a 30% cut to the government's own fuel use and a 20% cut to its electricity use. Misr Fertilizers Production Co. (MOPCO) said its own operations continue uninterrupted.
November 8, 2026 · market confirmed
Trafigura, Vitol, Mercuria, ADNOC seek US licenses for sanctioned tankers
Bloomberg reported that at least four companies — Trafigura, Vitol, Mercuria and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. — are in talks with the US Treasury for licenses to buy or lease US-blacklisted tankers, covering about 50 of the roughly 1,600 vessels currently under US sanctions (462 of them crude tankers, as of Nov 4). No decisions have been finalized, and any license would apply only to US sanctions; the EU and UK maintain separate lists. The move follows Energy Secretary Chris Wright's October announcement letting investors refurbish idled sanctioned tankers for legal crude transport, part of the response to a shortage of vessels and record freight rates since the war disrupted shipping.
November 7, 2026 · military unverified
Iran's Guards claim two more tankers mined near Hormuz; state media suggests blasts weren't US strikes
Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said two oil tankers caught fire after hitting mines on an "unauthorized route" through the Strait of Hormuz on Nov 7, and Fars News later reported a third tanker suffered an explosion and caught fire (IRGC and Fars claims, unverified). Blasts were separately heard across southern Iran that evening, including on Qeshm Island, where Tasnim reported two missile impacts with no official damage assessment; Iranian state television said no missile strikes on Iranian territory had been confirmed and suggested the explosions could be linked to Iran's own military activity in the strait rather than a US attack. Reuters said it could not independently confirm any of the reported strikes. Separately, UKMTO reported an incident involving a bulk carrier and military forces about 18 nautical miles east of Khor Fakkan, UAE, with damage unknown — the same area and day as the US military's disabling of a cargo vessel reported Nov 7, though it is unclear if they are the same incident.
November 7, 2026 · military reported
US forces disable cargo ship breaching Iran blockade in Gulf of Oman
US Central Command said a US military aircraft fired precision munitions at the stern of a St Kitts-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman on Nov 7, disabling it after its crew repeatedly ignored warnings not to breach the US naval blockade on Iran; the vessel had called at an Iranian port. CENTCOM reported no casualties and said it is forming a new task force to counter Iran's movement of weapons and other sanctioned materials across its land borders and the Caspian Sea. President Trump has separately threatened a renewed offensive against Iran, which has threatened retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure.
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