Situation as of September 27, 2026
US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026 set off a regional war. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, and it has not reopened to normal traffic, cutting off most Gulf oil and LNG exports; the IEA calls it the largest supply disruption in oil-market history. Retaliatory strikes damaged Gulf energy assets: Qatar lost ~17% of its LNG capacity for 3-5 years at Ras Laffan, Israel hit South Pars, and Saudi (Ras Tanura, SAMREF, Abqaiq, Jazan), Emirati (Fujairah, Shah, Habshan) and Kuwaiti (Mina al-Ahmadi) facilities were hit. An 8 April ceasefire and a 17 June US-Iran MoU briefly revived traffic and pushed oil back to pre-war levels, but the truce collapsed on 7-8 July. Since then the US has blockaded Iranian ports (from 14 July), Iran runs a permit-and-toll regime, and tanker attacks continue. The second front is the Red Sea: the Houthis declared a ban on Saudi shipping from 20 July, struck tankers and the Jazan refinery, and seized Mocha on 10 September. Drones from Iraq hit Abqaiq (27 July) and shut the East-West bypass pipeline (10-11 September), which restarted at reduced rates around 22 September. In the Black Sea, Ukrainian strikes on Russian ports and refineries (Baltic ports in March, Novorossiysk/CPC, Tuapse, Moscow) and Turkey's 8 August permit halt for Novorossiysk-bound ships have cut flows. Policy responses include a record 400 mb IEA stock release (US 172 mb), the UAE's exit from OPEC (1 May) and US consideration of diesel export curbs. US LNG exports are at records as new trains start up (Golden Pass, Corpus Christi Stage 3), and Panama Canal and Trans Mountain flows to Asia have risen. As of 25 September Brent was $104.32 (pre-crisis ~$72.5) and TTF ~€72/MWh (pre-crisis ~€32). On 26 September Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the strait.
A dated log of developments affecting energy infrastructure, flows and prices. Each entry links its sources and carries a confidence label. RSS feed.
Explosions were reported near Qeshm Island on 27 September, with anti-ship missiles and drones allegedly fired at transiting vessels, hours after President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the strait. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority has instructed shippers to use an Iranian-approved temporary route and pay fees, threatening to blacklist charterers using other routes.
Related: Strait of Hormuz
At the UN General Assembly Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week if seven conditions were met, including lifting the US blockade, releasing frozen funds and ending attacks on all fronts; Trump rejected it on 26 September. Reuters had reported US and Iranian negotiators in New York exploring a phased deal (strait reopening in exchange for lifting the blockade), which briefly pushed oil prices lower.
Related: Strait of Hormuz, Kharg Island
Saudi forces said they intercepted six ballistic missiles aimed at Yanbu and Taif on 24 September; on 25 September the Houthis claimed missile and drone strikes on Aramco facilities in Yanbu and a 'sensitive target' in Riyadh. No damage was confirmed. Yanbu is Saudi Arabia's main Red Sea export outlet and the terminus of the East-West pipeline.
Related: Yanbu Terminal, East-West Pipeline (Petroline)
Preliminary Kpler data showed 33.7 million barrels of crude leaving the Strait of Hormuz in the week starting 20 September, against roughly 105 million barrels a week before the war (about 15 mb/d of crude in 2025, per IEA analysis of Kpler data). Many tankers now transit with transponders off, so ship-tracking figures are likely to understate actual flows.
Related: Strait of Hormuz
President Macron announced France will send soldiers, radar and defence systems to protect energy infrastructure at Yanbu. CTP-ISW reports the US, UK and other partners are also flying air-defence missions over Saudi oil infrastructure; Pakistan and Turkey called military chiefs' meetings under a joint defence agreement.
Related: Yanbu Terminal
An Indian cargo ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, killing a sailor, as attacks on shipping continued despite US assertions that the waterway is open.
Related: Strait of Hormuz
US retail diesel reached a record of about $6.53/gal (AAA, 21-22 Sep), up nearly $1 in a month. Trump said 'let's not send out the diesel' and officials examined export restrictions; by 25 September no policy had been announced and Energy Secretary Wright was gauging refiners' interest in voluntary curbs. The US exports diesel equal to ~40% of domestic consumption, supplying Europe and Latin America.
Related: Houston / Texas City Refining Hub, Port Arthur / Beaumont Refining Hub
Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline after drone damage to pumping stations, with flows at a reduced rate and Yanbu crude exports expected to resume on 22-23 September, according to sources briefed by Reuters. Aramco and the energy ministry did not comment.
Related: East-West Pipeline (Petroline), Yanbu Terminal
Six to seven VLCCs loaded roughly 12–14 million barrels at Ras Tanura and Ju'aymah on 21 September, the busiest day since before the war (MarineTraffic, TankerTrackers.com). Provisional Kpler data showed Saudi crude exports recovering to more than 4 mb/d so far in September, from about 2.4 mb/d in August, the lowest since at least 2013. Much Gulf-side loading moves on AIS-dark tankers, so tracked figures may be incomplete.
Related: Ras Tanura Terminal, Strait of Hormuz
Bloomberg ship-tracking showed at least four Qatari LNG carriers moving through Hormuz in a week (two laden outbound), the most sustained activity since Qatar largely halted exports via the strait in early July after one of its tankers was attacked. Energy Minister al-Kaabi said on 21 September undamaged parts of Ras Laffan could restart within a couple of weeks of the strait reopening; about 17% of capacity (two trains) remains destroyed.
Related: Ras Laffan LNG, Strait of Hormuz
Overnight 19-20 September Ukrainian forces struck the Gazpromneft Moscow refinery in Kapotnya, damaging its AVT-6 primary unit and other units and forcing a pause in refining; CTP-ISW estimates offline Russian refining capacity rose from 10% to 14%. Moscow's mayor claimed over 1,600 drones were downed since 19 September.
Dutch TTF front-month reached €83.97/MWh on 15 September, the highest since late 2022, with EU storage at 68.5% versus 80.8% a year earlier (Germany 55.9%). Asian JKM reached its highest in about 2.5 years on 10 September. Prices eased later in the month on US-Iran talk reports.
Related: Ras Laffan LNG
Drones launched from Iraq (reportedly Maysan province) struck East-West pipeline pumping infrastructure in Riyadh and Medina provinces on 10-11 September; the energy ministry closed the line 'as a precaution'. The pipeline had been carrying ~4-5 mb/d of Hormuz-bypass crude to Yanbu. No group claimed it; analysts point to Iran-aligned Iraqi militias, while some reports blame the Houthis. Brent briefly hit ~$110.
Related: East-West Pipeline (Petroline), Yanbu Terminal, Abqaiq
The IEA's September Oil Market Report said Saudi crude supply fell 2.3 mb/d month on month to 6 mb/d in August, citing Houthi-linked strikes on Bab el-Mandeb shipping, the Jazan refinery and shipping near Yanbu, and Iraqi militia drone strikes on Abqaiq. Saudi loadings fell 1.1 mb/d to 3.5 mb/d; the IEA cut its 2026 Saudi supply forecast to 7.6 mb/d and deferred full Gulf recovery to 2027.
Related: Ghawar, Abqaiq, Yanbu Terminal
Houthi forces captured the port city of Mocha on 10 September, according to Yemeni government military sources cited by Reuters, and subsequently several Red Sea islands; government forces fell back to Dhubab opposite Perim Island. The advance gives the group more leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb strait as it enforces a declared blockade on Saudi-linked shipping.
Related: Bab el-Mandeb
Ukraine's General Staff and President Zelensky said drones struck Novorossiysk's naval base and a seaport fuel/oil terminal overnight on 9 September, with fires reported, and that 13 shadow-fleet vessels were hit in the Black Sea. The Saratov refinery was reportedly struck on 8 September. Loading impacts were not reported.
Related: Novorossiysk, Turkish Straits (Bosphorus & Dardanelles)
Trans Mountain ran at full capacity for the first time in June and remains full; about two-thirds of Westridge cargoes go to Asia. The operator plans +90 kb/d in Q4 2026 and +210 kb/d by 2028, citing demand driven by Middle East supply disruption.
Related: Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX)
The seven core OPEC+ members (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman) kept September production levels for October, after completing the rollback of the 1.65 mb/d 2023 cut. Many members cannot reach quotas because of Hormuz disruption. Next meeting 4 October.
US forces struck three Iranian vessels on 5 September, including a tanker off Kharg Island and another near Jask, after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US aircraft carrier and destroyer (no US injuries). Iran said it targeted tankers using an 'unauthorised route'. Vessel counts averaged ~13/day over the prior 10 days versus ~100 pre-war.
Related: Kharg Island, Strait of Hormuz
Chevron said it will invest $7 billion over five years to raise Venezuelan production to about 600,000 b/d, taking on Carabobo 1 and Carabobo-2-South-A in the Orinoco Belt. It follows a 28 August US deal granting a private venture (NABEP) 100-year concessions over 17 fields. Analysts say meaningful new barrels are years away.
Related: Orinoco Belt, Jose Terminal
After projectiles hit tankers including the VLCC Senegal Prosperity on 30–31 August, US forces struck Iranian radars, air defences, maritime and mine-laying sites on 30 August–1 September (per CENTCOM, reported by CTP-ISW); Iran retaliated against US and allied bases.
Related: Strait of Hormuz
Cheniere completed the final Corpus Christi Stage 3 train on 28 August, taking the site above 25 mtpa. US LNG exports averaged 17.4 Bcf/d in H1 2026, up 23% year on year, with Plaquemines at full capacity and Golden Pass Train 1 ramping; Asian shipments more than doubled.
Related: Corpus Christi LNG, Plaquemines LNG, Golden Pass LNG
A Joint Maritime Information Center advisory on 25 August kept the mine threat in the Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE, warning of drifting or uncharted mines. The same day President Trump claimed all mines in international waters had been cleared; that claim has not been independently verified.
Related: Strait of Hormuz
A Bahri-owned VLCC was hit by a ballistic missile about 63 nm west of Yanbu, starting a fire; crew were unharmed. The Houthis said it enforced their ban on Saudi shipping. Lloyd's List Intelligence reported no further Red Sea attacks through early September, with the threat focused on Saudi-linked tonnage.
Related: Yanbu Terminal, Bab el-Mandeb
The UAE suspended all trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions with Iran after two Iranian ballistic missiles fell into the sea on 18 August, one in Emirati waters.
Related: Jebel Ali / Dubai, Strait of Hormuz
The Houthis hit the Egyptian-owned cargo ship Tihamah in Bab el-Mandeb with three ballistic missiles and a follow-up strike, killing at least six, the first shipping deaths linked to the group since the war began. The Houthis had declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia after Saudi airstrikes ended the 2022 truce on 13 July.
Related: Bab el-Mandeb
Saudi Arabia's energy ministry reported a fire early on 9 August at the Jazan refinery on the Red Sea, since extinguished with no casualties; the Houthis claimed a drone strike. The Houthis claimed further strikes on the refinery on 13 and 18 August (not independently confirmed). The IEA later cited attacks on Jazan among causes of Saudi supply losses.
Turkey's coastal safety directorate stopped issuing Dardanelles transit permits for commercial ships bound for Novorossiysk (and reportedly Ukrainian ports) after attacks on two Turkish-owned vessels; traffic to Bulgarian and Turkish ports continued. The move compounds Black Sea export disruption.
Related: Turkish Straits (Bosphorus & Dardanelles), Novorossiysk, CPC Pipeline (Caspian Pipeline Consortium)
After a request from VP Vance on 31 July, Ukraine agreed to halt attacks on non-Russian tankers and infrastructure serving the CPC terminal, provided vessels carry no Russian cargo, are not Russian-owned and are not under Ukrainian sanctions. CPC shipments had resumed but remained below normal.
Related: CPC Pipeline (Caspian Pipeline Consortium), Tengiz, Kashagan
Saudi Arabia said Iran-backed Iraqi militias launched drones at oil facilities in the Eastern Province and Riyadh; imagery showed damage and smoke at Aramco's Abqaiq processing facility (~7 mb/d capacity). US and Saudi aircraft struck militia sites in Iraq on 28 July. The IEA later cited the Abqaiq strikes among causes of Saudi supply losses.
The Houthis declared all vessels loading or discharging at Saudi ports prohibited from 20 July. Bab el-Mandeb transits fell 24% to 269 in the week of 20 July (354 the week before) and mainstream tanker transits fell 42% to 53, before stabilising. Saudi tankers turned back and the group later claimed attacks on Yanbu installations.
Related: Bab el-Mandeb, Yanbu Terminal, Suez Canal
Four tankers heading to or loading at the CPC terminal near Novorossiysk (Nordic Zenith, Asia, Nissos Ios, Nelsa) were hit by drones on 17-20 July. CPC suspended loadings on 22 July as storage filled and Kazakhstan announced temporary output cuts on 23 July. Russia blamed Ukraine; Kazakhstan called the attacks unacceptable. CPC carries ~80% of Kazakh exports.
Related: CPC Pipeline (Caspian Pipeline Consortium), Novorossiysk, Tengiz, Kashagan
Kuwait said an Iranian attack caused a fire and damaged several power-generation units at a combined power and water desalination plant, urging residents to conserve power and water. War-risk premiums for Hormuz transits were quoted at 3-10% of hull value, versus ~0.25% pre-war (Marsh).
The US naval blockade of Iranian ports was reimposed on 14 July after the June truce collapsed. Independent data on how far it has cut Iranian exports is limited; US figures on vessels redirected are not used here.
Related: Kharg Island, Strait of Hormuz
Following attacks on commercial ships, the US struck Iranian territory and Iran retaliated against US Gulf bases; Trump declared the truce over. The US revoked a 60-day waiver on Iranian oil sales, effective 17 July. Brent rose over 3% from near pre-war levels; one analyst said transits had stayed below 50% of pre-war levels for months.
Related: Strait of Hormuz, Kharg Island
The Qatari LNG tanker Al Rekayyat caught fire after being hit off Limah, Oman, the first Qatari LNG ship struck in the war, and the Saudi supertanker Wedyan was damaged. Qatar and Saudi Arabia held Iran responsible. Qatar then largely halted LNG exports through the strait.
Related: Strait of Hormuz, Ras Laffan LNG
Brent settled at $72.68 and WTI at $69.58 on 25 June, the lowest since 27 February, as Hormuz traffic partly resumed after the 17 June MoU. IMF PortWatch data showed 513 ships transiting between 18 June and 5 July, an average of 28 a day, against about 100 a day before the war.
Related: Strait of Hormuz
An explosion at the Barzan gas facility in Ras Laffan Industrial City killed at least 13 workers two days after restart operations began. Qatar's energy minister blamed a technical malfunction, ruled out sabotage and said exports would not be affected.
Related: Ras Laffan LNG, North Field / South Pars
Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war and restore shipping; Pakistan, the main mediator, said Iran would reopen the strait and the US blockade would end. Traffic recovered only partially, and five commercial vessels were attacked between 25 June and 7 July.
Related: Strait of Hormuz, Kharg Island
Canal transits averaged 38/day, up 8% year on year and 16% over five weeks, near the 36-40 daily limit, driven by US tanker, LPG and LNG shipments to Asia; waiting times rose to 47 hours.
Related: Panama Canal
Iran set up the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, requiring vessels to declare ownership, insurance, crew and cargo and pay fees for transit permits; some ships reportedly paid ~$2 million per transit. Israeli-linked ships are banned. OFAC warned that payments could expose firms to sanctions.
Related: Strait of Hormuz
The Department of Energy began moving 53.3 million barrels from the SPR under exchange contracts with nine companies (largest: Trafigura, Marathon, ExxonMobil), on top of the 172 million barrels ordered in March. Brent was above $105 at the time.
Related: US Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The UAE said it engaged 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles and 4 drones; a large fire broke out in the Fujairah Petroleum Industries Zone, injuring three, and an ADNOC-linked empty tanker was targeted. The attacks, the first since the 8 April ceasefire, came as the US launched the 'Project Freedom' tanker escort operation (paused 6 May). Brent rose 5.8% to $114.44.
Related: Fujairah, Habshan–Fujairah Pipeline
The UAE announced on 28 April that it would leave OPEC and OPEC+ from 1 May, ending 59 years of membership. It cited its national interest and its goal of 5 mb/d of production capacity by 2027.
Related: Zakum (Upper & Lower)
Oil flows through the southern Druzhba leg resumed on 23 April after a halt since January that Kyiv attributed to Russian strike damage near Brody; Slovakia's economy ministry confirmed receipt. Hungary then lifted its veto on a €90bn EU loan to Ukraine.
Related: Druzhba Pipeline (Southern Branch)
Golden Pass LNG in Texas (QatarEnergy 70%, ExxonMobil 30%) loaded its first export cargo onto QatarEnergy's new carrier Al-Qaiyyah, weeks after first LNG production in late March. It gives Qatar LNG supply outside the Strait of Hormuz while its own plants are offline.
Related: Golden Pass LNG
After 21 hours of Pakistan-mediated talks ended without a deal, CENTCOM began blockading all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports at 10:00 ET on 13 April, saying it would not impede transits to non-Iranian ports. More than 90% of Iran's seaborne trade moves through Hormuz.
Related: Kharg Island, Strait of Hormuz
A temporary US-Iran ceasefire was agreed on 8 April and oil posted its largest daily drop since April 2020. Hormuz traffic stayed far below pre-war levels; about 14 LNG cargoes were trapped in the Gulf.
Related: Strait of Hormuz
A Ukrainian strike damaged a CPC mooring-point pipeline and loading facilities and set four storage tanks ablaze at the Sheskharis terminal, which handles roughly 20% of Russian seaborne crude exports. CPC carries ~1% of world oil supply and ~80% of Kazakh exports.
Related: Novorossiysk, CPC Pipeline (Caspian Pipeline Consortium)
Israel's energy ministry said Leviathan would return to operation after being shut on 28 February, when Leviathan and Karish were halted as a precaution, cutting exports to Egypt and Jordan. Tamar was the only producing field during the shutdown.
Related: Leviathan, Tamar, Arab Gas Pipeline, Eastern Mediterranean Energy Zone
Loadings at Russia's two largest Baltic oil ports were suspended after repeated drone strikes started fires; Reuters estimated ~40% of Russian oil export capacity (~2 mb/d) was offline, with at least 50 tankers waiting. Novorossiysk was also behind schedule after earlier attacks. Druzhba exports to Hungary and Slovakia had been halted since January.
QatarEnergy declared force majeure on long-term LNG contracts with buyers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea and China. The 19 March strikes damaged two of 14 LNG trains and a GTL plant, removing 12.8 mtpa (~17% of export capacity); repairs are estimated at 3-5 years and lost revenue at ~$20bn a year.
Related: Ras Laffan LNG
Iraq's oil ministry declared force majeure on 20 March on fields operated by foreign companies after ordering shutdowns on 17 March; Basra Oil Company cut output from ~3.3 mb/d to ~0.9 mb/d with southern exports halted by the Hormuz closure. Rumaila had already cut up to 700 kb/d.
Related: Rumaila, Strait of Hormuz
In retaliation for the South Pars strike, Iran hit Qatar's Ras Laffan complex (extensive damage), UAE's Habshan gas facility and Bab field, Saudi Arabia's SAMREF refinery at Yanbu, and Kuwait's Mina al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah refineries (Mina al-Ahmadi was hit again on 20 March). Brent rose above $110.
Related: Ras Laffan LNG, Yanbu Terminal, Mina al-Ahmadi, Habshan–Fujairah Pipeline
An Iranian missile hit the Haifa Bay area, damaging third-party infrastructure essential to the Bazan refinery; most production remained active and restoration was expected to take a few days.
Related: Eastern Mediterranean Energy Zone
Israel struck gas treatment facilities at Asaluyeh serving the South Pars field, which supplies about 70% of Iran's domestic gas, triggering Iranian retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure. Trump said the US 'knew nothing' in advance and threatened South Pars if attacks on Qatar continued.
Related: North Field / South Pars, South Pars Oil Layer
Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government resumed exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey on 18 March at ~250 kb/d, with up to 200 kb/d more possible. Iraqi output had fallen to ~1.4 mb/d from ~4.2 mb/d and southern exports (3.4 mb/d pre-war) were halted.
Related: Kirkuk–Ceyhan Pipeline, Ceyhan Terminal, Kirkuk
Drone strikes and fires at Fujairah on 14 and 16 March halted loadings of ADNOC Murban crude (normally over 1 mb/d) at the UAE's only export outlet outside Hormuz; the port kept operating at reduced capacity. A drone attack also shut the Shah sour-gas field, which supplies at least 500 MMcf/d.
Related: Fujairah, Habshan–Fujairah Pipeline
CENTCOM struck about 90 military targets on Kharg Island, including mine and missile storage, while deliberately sparing the terminal that handles ~90% of Iran's crude exports. Iran warned it would destroy regional oil and gas infrastructure if its own were hit.
Related: Kharg Island
All 32 IEA members agreed a 400 million barrel collective stock release, the largest ever and the sixth in IEA history. The US announced a 172 million barrel contribution from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve and Japan about 80 million barrels. The IEA has called the disruption the largest in the history of the oil market.
Related: US Strategic Petroleum Reserve
QatarEnergy halted production after military attacks on Ras Laffan and Mesaieed industrial cities. Qatar supplies about 20% of world LNG. Dutch TTF front-month rose €14.52 to €46.52/MWh on 2 March from about €32 the previous Friday.
Related: Ras Laffan LNG, North Field / South Pars
Aramco shut its 550 kb/d Ras Tanura refinery after a drone attack caused a fire, with a temporary halt in loadings reported; the Saudi energy ministry said the damage came from debris of intercepted drones. Brent rose to about $80.
Related: Ras Tanura Refinery, Ras Tanura Terminal
After US-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the IRGC broadcast that no ship may pass the strait; by 2 March it limited passage to Iran-approved vessels. Major carriers suspended transits and war-risk premiums jumped. Before the war about 20 mb/d of oil (around a quarter of seaborne oil trade) and almost 20% of global LNG trade passed through Hormuz (IEA, based on Kpler). Israel shut the Leviathan and Karish gas fields as a precaution.
Related: Strait of Hormuz, Leviathan