Panama Canal near capacity as US energy exports to Asia surge
Canal transits averaged 38/day, up 8% year on year and 16% over five weeks, near the 36-40 daily limit, driven by US tanker, LPG and LNG shipments to Asia; waiting times rose to 47 hours.
Chokepoint
Panama Canal: status, ship traffic and energy flows
Is the Panama Canal open?
Yes. As of September 27, 2026, this map records no disruption to commercial traffic through the Panama Canal. IMF PortWatch satellite tracking recorded an average of 11.4 tankers a day in the week to September 20, 2026, 12% below the Sep 2025–Feb 2026 average of 12.9.
Updated May 21, 2026 · View on the live map →
Ship traffic
| Tankers per day, last 7 days | 11.4 |
|---|---|
| Sep 2025–Feb 2026 average | 12.9 |
| Change | −12% |
| All vessels per day, last 7 days | 26 |
7-day average of daily tanker transits from IMF PortWatch (satellite AIS data, about a week's lag), through September 20, 2026.
Key figures
| Oil flow before the crisis | 2.3 million barrels a day |
|---|---|
| Share of global LNG trade | ~4% |
| Sea route around it | Cape of Good Hope, +14 days |
US Gulf LNG to Asia diverts via the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn, adding ~2 weeks. That ties up LNG carrier capacity and raises Asian spot prices. Oil figure is approximate. Baseline: EIA 1H 2025 flows.
What if the Panama Canal closes?
Ships could divert, adding about 14 days per voyage for ~2.3 mb/d of oil. That ties up tankers and raises freight and insurance costs, but supply is delayed rather than lost.
Most exposed
- Japan / Korea / China: US LNG and LPG cargoes to Northeast Asia.
- US LNG exporters: Longer voyages make Asian sales less competitive; more cargoes default to Europe.
- West coast of South America: Refined product imports from the US Gulf Coast.
Illustrative model using pre-crisis baselines; see how the what-if model works. Try combinations in the live map's What-if tab.
Recent developments
Background
Connects Atlantic (Caribbean) to Pacific. ~82 km. Neopanamax locks (2016) accept most LNG carriers. Key route for US Gulf Coast LNG and LPG to Northeast Asia; saves ~2 weeks versus sailing around Africa or Cape Horn.
Geopolitical context
The 2023–24 drought forced the Panama Canal Authority to cut daily transits sharply, and US LNG cargoes to Asia almost entirely abandoned the canal for the Cape of Good Hope — showing that climate, not only conflict, can close a chokepoint. Panama returned the canal to full draft in 2024, but capacity depends on Gatun Lake water levels. Washington has pressed Panama over Chinese-linked port concessions at both ends of the canal, making it a front in US–China competition. For US LNG, the canal decides whether cargoes compete in Asia or default to Europe.
Common questions
Is the Panama Canal open?
Yes. As of September 27, 2026, this map records no disruption to commercial traffic through the Panama Canal. IMF PortWatch satellite tracking recorded an average of 11.4 tankers a day in the week to September 20, 2026, 12% below the Sep 2025–Feb 2026 average of 12.9.
How much oil passes through the Panama Canal?
About 2.3 million barrels a day of crude and oil products before the 2026 crisis, plus around 4% of global LNG trade. Baseline: EIA — World Oil Transit Chokepoints (1H 2025 flows).
What are the alternatives if the Panama Canal closes?
Ships can sail around it (via the Cape of Good Hope), adding about 14 days per voyage, so flows are delayed rather than lost.
Which countries are most exposed to the Panama Canal?
Japan / Korea / China: US LNG and LPG cargoes to Northeast Asia. US LNG exporters: Longer voyages make Asian sales less competitive; more cargoes default to Europe. West coast of South America: Refined product imports from the US Gulf Coast.
Other chokepoints: Strait of Hormuz · Turkish Straits (Bosphorus & Dardanelles) · Suez Canal · Bab el-Mandeb · Strait of Malacca · Eastern Mediterranean Energy Zone · Cape of Good Hope