Cape of Good Hope: status, ship traffic and energy flows

Background

Southern tip of Africa. Not a chokepoint but the default detour when Suez/Bab el-Mandeb are unsafe or the Panama Canal is restricted. Adds ~10–14 days Asia–Europe and ~3,500 nautical miles.

Geopolitical context

Traffic around the Cape surged after Houthi attacks began in late 2023, effectively making South Africa a transit state for Asia–Europe trade. Longer voyages absorb tanker capacity, raise freight and insurance costs, and increase bunker demand at Cape Town, Durban, Port Louis and the Canary Islands. South African ports have struggled with congestion. The Cape route cannot be closed, but it is slower and more exposed to severe weather.