Strait of Malacca: status, ship traffic and energy flows

Ship traffic

7-day average of daily tanker transits from IMF PortWatch (satellite AIS data, about a week's lag), through September 20, 2026.

Key figures

Ships can divert via the Lombok/Makassar or Sunda straits at the cost of ~2–3 extra days. China's overland pipelines (Central Asia, Russia, Myanmar) cover only a small share of its imports. Baseline: EIA 1H 2025 flows.

What if the Strait of Malacca closes?

Ships could divert, adding about 3 days per voyage for ~23.2 mb/d of oil. That ties up tankers and raises freight and insurance costs, but supply is delayed rather than lost.

Most exposed

• China: ~80% of oil imports ("Malacca Dilemma").
• Japan: Nearly all Gulf crude and LNG passes Malacca or nearby straits.
• South Korea: Same exposure as Japan.
• Taiwan: Almost entirely dependent on seaborne energy imports.

Facilities cut off: Singapore, Jurong Island Refining Complex.

Illustrative model using pre-crisis baselines; see how the what-if model works. Try combinations in the live map's What-if tab.

Background

Connects Indian Ocean to South China Sea. ~2.5 km at narrowest (Phillips Channel). ~16 million bpd of oil. ~25% of global trade. Critical for China, Japan, South Korea energy imports. Piracy risk.

Geopolitical context

China's "Malacca Dilemma" (coined by Hu Jintao in 2003): ~80% of China's oil imports transit this strait, which is patrolled by the US Navy and bordered by US allies Singapore and Malaysia. In any conflict scenario, a US blockade here could strangle China's energy supply. This vulnerability drives China's massive investment in overland pipelines (Central Asia-China, Myanmar-China), domestic renewables, strategic petroleum reserves (~950 million barrels), and naval expansion. Japan and South Korea face the same dependency. Singapore's position at the strait's southern end underpins its status as Asia's energy trading hub. Piracy, while reduced from its 2000s peak, remains a concern — the strait's shallow, narrow waters make supertankers especially vulnerable.