Chokepoint Disrupted
Is the Turkish Straits (Bosphorus & Dardanelles) open?
Only partly. As of August 8, 2026, shipping through the Turkish Straits (Bosphorus & Dardanelles) is disrupted (since August 8, 2026). IMF PortWatch satellite tracking recorded an average of 15.6 tankers a day in the week to September 20, 2026, 31% below the Sep 2025–Feb 2026 average of 22.6. Some ships sail with transponders off, so tracked counts may understate traffic.
Updated September 9, 2026 · View on the live map →
Since 8 Aug Turkey has not issued Dardanelles transit permits for commercial ships bound for Novorossiysk (and reportedly Ukraine), after attacks on Turkish-owned vessels in the Black Sea; traffic to Bulgarian and Turkish ports continues.
| Tankers per day, last 7 days | 15.6 |
|---|---|
| Sep 2025–Feb 2026 average | 22.6 |
| Change | −31% |
| All vessels per day, last 7 days | 54 |
7-day average of daily tanker transits from IMF PortWatch (satellite AIS data, about a week's lag), through September 20, 2026.
| Oil flow before the crisis | 3.7 million barrels a day |
|---|---|
| Sea route around it | None |
The Black Sea has no other exit. BTC (Azerbaijan→Ceyhan) is unaffected because it loads on the Mediterranean. Baseline: EIA 1H 2025 flows.
Closing it would cut about 3.7 mb/d of oil with no sea route around it. Usable pipeline bypass capacity of ~0.0 mb/d leaves a net shortfall of about 3.7 mb/d, roughly 3.6% of world oil demand.
Facilities cut off: Novorossiysk, CPC Pipeline (Caspian Pipeline Consortium), Tengiz, Kashagan.
Illustrative model using pre-crisis baselines; see how the what-if model works. Try combinations in the live map's What-if tab.
Ukraine's General Staff and President Zelensky said drones struck Novorossiysk's naval base and a seaport fuel/oil terminal overnight on 9 September, with fires reported, and that 13 shadow-fleet vessels were hit in the Black Sea. The Saratov refinery was reportedly struck on 8 September. Loading impacts were not reported.
Turkey's coastal safety directorate stopped issuing Dardanelles transit permits for commercial ships bound for Novorossiysk (and reportedly Ukrainian ports) after attacks on two Turkish-owned vessels; traffic to Bulgarian and Turkish ports continued. The move compounds Black Sea export disruption.
Connects Black Sea to Mediterranean. Bosphorus is ~700m at narrowest. ~3.5 million bpd of oil transits. Governed by 1936 Montreux Convention. Key route for Russian/Kazakh crude exports.
The 1936 Montreux Convention gives Turkey sovereign control over the straits while guaranteeing civilian maritime passage — and allowing Turkey to restrict military vessel transit during wartime. Turkey has used Montreux to block Russian and other warships from entering the Black Sea since the 2022 Ukraine invasion. Istanbul's 15 million residents live alongside one of the world's busiest oil tanker corridors; a major accident could close the strait and disrupt CPC and other Black Sea crude exports. Turkey's proposed Istanbul Canal (a parallel artificial waterway) would allow Ankara to bypass Montreux restrictions, though the project faces cost and environmental hurdles.
Only partly. As of August 8, 2026, shipping through the Turkish Straits (Bosphorus & Dardanelles) is disrupted (since August 8, 2026). IMF PortWatch satellite tracking recorded an average of 15.6 tankers a day in the week to September 20, 2026, 31% below the Sep 2025–Feb 2026 average of 22.6. Some ships sail with transponders off, so tracked counts may understate traffic.
About 3.7 million barrels a day of crude and oil products before the 2026 crisis. Baseline: EIA — World Oil Transit Chokepoints (1H 2025 flows).
There is no sea route around it. No usable pipeline bypass is available.
Kazakhstan: CPC carries ~80% of Kazakh crude exports to Novorossiysk. Russia: Black Sea crude and product exports. Mediterranean refiners: Italy, Greece, Spain and Turkey rely on CPC Blend and Black Sea barrels.
Other chokepoints: Strait of Hormuz · Suez Canal · Bab el-Mandeb · Strait of Malacca · Eastern Mediterranean Energy Zone · Panama Canal · Cape of Good Hope