Is the Bab el-Mandeb open?
Only partly. As of October 25, 2026, shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb is disrupted (since July 20, 2026). IMF PortWatch satellite tracking recorded an average of 6.9 tankers a day in the week to November 8, 2026, 43% below the Sep 2025–Feb 2026 average of 12.1. Some ships sail with transponders off, so tracked counts may understate traffic.
Updated November 9, 2026 · View on the live map →
Current situation
The Houthis have enforced a 'ban' on Saudi-linked shipping since 20 July, hitting ships (Tihamah 12 Aug, Bahri VLCC off Yanbu 24 Aug) and seizing Mocha and Red Sea islands on 10-11 Sep. Tanker transits fell sharply; overall transits were ~15% below pre-ban levels by late August. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a counteroffensive ('Operation Yemen Dawn') around 3-5 Oct, backed by a reported 100 Saudi-led coalition jets, and said they had taken full control of the strait plus Dhubab town, its airport and the road to Mokha; on 9 Oct the Saudi-led coalition said it struck 136 further 'high-value' Houthi targets and Yemeni officials additionally claimed Mayyun (Perim) Island, which the Houthis had seized in September, had been retaken. On 10 Oct Houthi media said they repelled the Yemeni-government push on Mayyun and still hold the island, directly contradicting the 9 Oct claim. A Houthi missile strike on Riyadh's main airport over the weekend of 10-11 Oct killed at least 13 people, the deadliest attack on Saudi Arabia in a decade, and the Saudi-led coalition responded on 13 Oct with strikes on Houthi-linked sites in Sanaa, Hodeidah and Dhamar, including a Yemen Petroleum Company fuel depot the company said held no stocks; Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree threatened retaliation against Aramco's Dhahran headquarters and a Saudi refinery. Both sides' claims about territorial and shipping-lane control remain unverified and independent confirmation is unavailable, so the status here is unchanged. JMIC recorded 58 transits through Bab el-Mandeb over 22-24 October, against a baseline near 61/day, continuing the sharp falloff from normal traffic.
Recent developments
November 9, 2026 · policy confirmed
IMO warns of mounting seafarer toll from attacks on shipping near Hormuz, Red Sea, Black Sea
The International Maritime Organization said at least 130 incidents involving commercial vessels have been confirmed since the Iran war began, with 25 seafarers killed in the Middle East, most recently aboard the tanker Velos Sapphire. It also condemned Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab and Russian attacks on shipping and ports supporting Ukraine's Black Sea corridor, and called on member states to keep shipping lanes open and avoid unlawful acts endangering vessels and crews.
October 25, 2026 · shipping confirmed
JMIC: Hormuz transits fall to about a quarter of normal, ~492 ships now waiting
The multinational Joint Maritime Information Center recorded just 101 transits through the Strait of Hormuz over 22-24 October, about a quarter of the roughly 138/day pre-war baseline, and 58 through Bab el-Mandeb over the same period, against a baseline near 61/day. JMIC said about 492 vessels were waiting outside Hormuz as of 25 October — roughly 194 near Fujairah/Khor Fakkan, 178 off Dubai, 55 near Musandam/Sohar and 32 off Bandar Abbas/Qeshm — and expects the backlog to persist. UKMTO separately logged 18,049 anomalous AIS positions in the Gulf in its 23 October weekly overview, and ship-tracker Windward reported 293 vessels affected by GPS jamming on 21 October (confirmed: JMIC, UKMTO, Windward, via Gulf News).
October 21, 2026 · shipping confirmed
UKMTO: ship attacks near the Arabian Peninsula top 32 in October, already double September's count
The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre has recorded 32 attacks on commercial vessels around the Arabian Peninsula so far in October, versus 16 for all of September, even as Middle East oil flows have recovered toward pre-war levels on bypass routes. Most tankers in the area now transit with their AIS tracking signals off, making precise counts difficult.
October 19, 2026 · shipping reported
Qatari LNG cargo takes rare Red Sea route as a tanker is fired on nearby
A Qatari LNG carrier loaded in August sailed north through the Red Sea, with ship-tracking data suggesting it was headed to Poland, Bloomberg reported — a route most LNG and container ships have avoided since 2023 in favor of the longer Cape of Good Hope detour. Separately, UKMTO reported a skiff fired on an LNG tanker southeast of Al Mukalla in the Gulf of Aden; the tanker's security team returned fire and the vessel continued its voyage. The cargo moved as European gas prices sit near a four-year high and EU storage is at its lowest for the season in over a decade.
October 9, 2026 · military unverified
Saudi-led coalition claims 136 Houthi targets hit, Mayyun Island retaken; Houthis deny
The Saudi-led coalition said it struck 136 "high-value" Houthi targets in continued air support for the Yemeni government's 'Operation Yemen Dawn' offensive, and Yemeni officials said forces had also retaken Mayyun (Perim) Island, which the Houthis seized in September and which overlooks the Bab el-Mandeb shipping lane. Houthi-aligned media again denied losing ground. Independent confirmation of territorial or shipping-lane control was not available. (Yemeni government/Saudi-led coalition claim, unverified.)
October 6, 2026 · market confirmed
Brent, WTI fall for a third session to multi-week lows
Brent crude fell to $97.95-98.62/bbl and WTI to $87.32-87.60/bbl on 6 October, both down for a third consecutive session and WTI at its lowest since early September. Traders cited recovering Saudi Red Sea exports, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline topping 80% of capacity, and the G7's emergency reserve releases, weighed against a reported Saudi-backed advance toward Bab el-Mandeb and a still-closed Strait of Hormuz.
October 5, 2026 · military unverified
Yemeni government forces claim full control of Bab el-Mandeb under 'Operation Yemen Dawn'; Houthis don't confirm
Yemeni government military spokesman Lt Col Majed al-Nuzaili said pro-government Giants Brigades and Nation's Shield forces had taken full control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, plus Dhubab town and its airport, and cut the road to the port of Mokha, under an offensive named 'Operation Yemen Dawn'. The Saudi-led coalition said it flew 100 fighter jets in round-the-clock support and struck 324 'high-value' Houthi targets. The claims could not be independently verified and were not confirmed by the Houthis, whose media denied the advance. (Yemeni government and Saudi-led coalition claims, unverified.)
October 4, 2026 · military unverified
Saudi-backed Yemeni forces claim gains near Bab el-Mandeb; Houthi media deny
Reuters, citing three military sources and one government source, reported that Saudi-backed Giants Brigades and National Shield forces, with Saudi-led coalition air support, seized large parts of Dhubab district overlooking Bab el-Mandeb and cut the road toward Mokha, a day after Saudi Arabia's offensive to retake the strait from the Houthis was reported to have begun. A Yemeni government spokesman said forces had 'secured' the strait from the Houthis, but Houthi-aligned media denied the advances, and independent confirmation of territorial control was not available. (Yemeni government and military sources' claim, unverified.)
October 2, 2026 · military reported
Officials: Saudi Arabia preparing offensive to retake Bab el-Mandeb from Houthis
Six people familiar with the planning, including Gulf, Yemeni and Western officials, said Saudi Arabia is preparing a Yemeni-led ground offensive, backed by Saudi air power, to break Houthi control of the approaches to Bab el-Mandeb. Options range from a narrow coastal assault near the strait to a broader multi-front campaign; estimated timing ranges from within a week to after the US midterm elections in early November. No government has confirmed the plan, and no operation had begun as of this report.
September 10, 2026 · military confirmed
Houthis seize Mocha and Red Sea islands, tightening grip on Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi forces captured the port city of Mocha on 10 September, according to Yemeni government military sources cited by Reuters, and subsequently several Red Sea islands; government forces fell back to Dhubab opposite Perim Island. The advance gives the group more leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb strait as it enforces a declared blockade on Saudi-linked shipping.
August 24, 2026 · shipping confirmed
Houthis hit Bahri VLCC 'Amzan' off Yanbu
A Bahri-owned VLCC was hit by a ballistic missile about 63 nm west of Yanbu, starting a fire; crew were unharmed. The Houthis said it enforced their ban on Saudi shipping. Lloyd's List Intelligence reported no further Red Sea attacks through early September, with the threat focused on Saudi-linked tonnage.
August 12, 2026 · shipping reported
Houthi missile strike on ship in Bab el-Mandeb kills six
The Houthis hit the Egyptian-owned cargo ship Tihamah in Bab el-Mandeb with three ballistic missiles and a follow-up strike, killing at least six, the first shipping deaths linked to the group since the war began. The Houthis had declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia after Saudi airstrikes ended the 2022 truce on 13 July.
All events →
Background
Connects Red Sea to Gulf of Aden. ~29 km wide. ~4.2 million bpd of oil in the first half of 2025, down from 9.3 million in 2023 (EIA). Gateway to/from Suez Canal from the south. Houthi attacks since late 2023 have forced major rerouting around Cape of Good Hope.
Geopolitical context
The Houthi campaign against Red Sea shipping (beginning Nov 2023, citing solidarity with Gaza) has demonstrated how a non-state actor with relatively low-cost anti-ship missiles and drones can disrupt a critical global trade artery. The US-UK Operation Prosperity Guardian has conducted strikes against Houthi positions but has not stopped attacks. Major container lines (Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd) rerouted around Africa. Insurance premiums for Red Sea transit spiked 10x. Djibouti, on the strait's western shore, hosts military bases from the US, China, France, Japan, and Italy — making it the most concentrated point of great-power military presence globally. The strait's vulnerability has accelerated interest in rail and pipeline alternatives.
Common questions
Is the Bab el-Mandeb open?
Only partly. As of October 25, 2026, shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb is disrupted (since July 20, 2026). IMF PortWatch satellite tracking recorded an average of 6.9 tankers a day in the week to November 8, 2026, 43% below the Sep 2025–Feb 2026 average of 12.1. Some ships sail with transponders off, so tracked counts may understate traffic.
How much oil passes through the Bab el-Mandeb?
About 4.2 million barrels a day of crude and oil products before the 2026 crisis. Baseline: EIA — World Oil Transit Chokepoints (1H 2025 flows).
What are the alternatives if the Bab el-Mandeb closes?
Ships can sail around it (via the Cape of Good Hope), adding about 12 days per voyage, so flows are delayed rather than lost.
Which countries are most exposed to the Bab el-Mandeb?
Europe: Middle East crude, diesel and jet fuel via Suez; longer voyages raise delivered costs. Egypt: Suez Canal and SUMED revenues collapse when traffic diverts. Saudi Arabia: Yanbu exports (the Hormuz bypass outlet) sit inside the Red Sea.