Latest · October 6, 2026Brent and WTI fell for a third straight session to $97.95 and $87.32 — WTI's lowest since early September — as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline topped 80% of capacity and Saudi-backed forces reported gains toward Bab el-Mandeb, while Hormuz remains formally closed.
Background: how we got here
US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026 set off a regional war. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, and it has not reopened to normal traffic, cutting off most Gulf oil and LNG exports; the IEA calls it the largest supply disruption in oil-market history. Retaliatory strikes damaged Gulf energy assets: Qatar lost ~17% of its LNG capacity for 3-5 years at Ras Laffan, Israel hit South Pars, and Saudi (Ras Tanura, SAMREF, Abqaiq, Jazan), Emirati (Fujairah, Shah, Habshan) and Kuwaiti (Mina al-Ahmadi) facilities were hit. An 8 April ceasefire and a 17 June US-Iran MoU briefly revived traffic and pushed oil back to pre-war levels, but the truce collapsed on 7-8 July. Since then the US has blockaded Iranian ports (from 14 July), Iran runs a permit-and-toll regime, and tanker attacks continue. The second front is the Red Sea: the Houthis declared a ban on Saudi shipping from 20 July, struck tankers and the Jazan refinery, and seized Mocha on 10 September. Drones from Iraq hit Abqaiq (27 July) and shut the East-West bypass pipeline (10-11 September); it restarted at reduced rates around 22 September and by 28 September flows had recovered to roughly 3.5 mb/d, about half its 7 mb/d capacity. Saudi Arabia has also offset the outage by selling roughly 60 million barrels for ship-to-ship transfer at Sohar, Oman, pushing STS capacity there and at Fujairah to its limit and tightening the VLCC market. In the Black Sea, Ukrainian strikes on Russian ports and refineries (Baltic ports in March, Novorossiysk/CPC, Tuapse, Moscow) and Turkey's 8 August permit halt for Novorossiysk-bound ships have cut flows. Policy responses include a record 400 mb IEA stock release (US 172 mb), the UAE's exit from OPEC (1 May) and US consideration of diesel export curbs. US LNG exports are at records as new trains start up (Golden Pass, Corpus Christi Stage 3), and Panama Canal and Trans Mountain flows to Asia have risen. As of 1 October Brent was around $99-100 (pre-crisis ~$72.5) and TTF ~€73/MWh (pre-crisis ~€32). Iran offered at the UN to reopen the strait within a week if the US lifted its naval blockade; Trump rejected the offer on 26 September. By late September, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs estimated regional oil flows had recovered close to pre-war volumes even as tanker attacks and reporting gaps persist, while Trump and Iran continued trading claims over sanctions relief and the sequencing of any reopening.
October 6, 2026 · market confirmed
Brent, WTI fall for a third session to multi-week lows
Brent crude fell to $97.95-98.62/bbl and WTI to $87.32-87.60/bbl on 6 October, both down for a third consecutive session and WTI at its lowest since early September. Traders cited recovering Saudi Red Sea exports, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline topping 80% of capacity, and the G7's emergency reserve releases, weighed against a reported Saudi-backed advance toward Bab el-Mandeb and a still-closed Strait of Hormuz.
October 4, 2026 · military unverified
Saudi-backed Yemeni forces claim gains near Bab el-Mandeb; Houthi media deny
Reuters, citing three military sources and one government source, reported that Saudi-backed Giants Brigades and National Shield forces, with Saudi-led coalition air support, seized large parts of Dhubab district overlooking Bab el-Mandeb and cut the road toward Mokha, a day after Saudi Arabia's offensive to retake the strait from the Houthis was reported to have begun. A Yemeni government spokesman said forces had 'secured' the strait from the Houthis, but Houthi-aligned media denied the advances, and independent confirmation of territorial control was not available. (Yemeni government and military sources' claim, unverified.)
October 4, 2026 · shipping confirmed
UKMTO: tanker Lipsi struck and disabled in Strait of Hormuz
An unknown projectile struck the engine room of the Liberian-flagged Aframax tanker Lipsi, managed by Dynacom Tankers Management, about 3.9 nautical miles northeast of Jazirat Um Al Fayarin in the Strait of Hormuz, leaving it disabled and adrift. UKMTO said the crew was safe and reported no environmental impact. It is at least the seventh commercial vessel UKMTO has logged struck in or near the strait since 28 September.
October 3, 2026 · infrastructure reported
Fire reported at Aramco's Riyadh Refinery; Houthis claim missile-and-drone strike
Reuters and AFP witnesses saw a large fire and smoke plume at Saudi Aramco's Riyadh Refinery, south of the capital, with fire crews, ambulances and police at the scene. Yemen's Houthi movement claimed a missile-and-drone strike on the facility, calling it retaliation for Saudi strikes on Sanaa. Saudi authorities and Aramco did not confirm the cause or report any damage or output impact.
October 2, 2026 · military reported
Officials: Saudi Arabia preparing offensive to retake Bab el-Mandeb from Houthis
Six people familiar with the planning, including Gulf, Yemeni and Western officials, said Saudi Arabia is preparing a Yemeni-led ground offensive, backed by Saudi air power, to break Houthi control of the approaches to Bab el-Mandeb. Options range from a narrow coastal assault near the strait to a broader multi-front campaign; estimated timing ranges from within a week to after the US midterm elections in early November. No government has confirmed the plan, and no operation had begun as of this report.
October 2, 2026 · shipping confirmed
UKMTO: six vessels struck in Strait of Hormuz since 28 September
UKMTO advisories show at least six merchant vessels have now been hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz since 28 September, extending the pattern of delayed incident disclosures already seen this run. UKMTO reported crews safe and did not attribute responsibility for the strikes.
October 2, 2026 · infrastructure reported
Saudi East-West pipeline flows top 80% of capacity, Bloomberg reports
Bloomberg reported that Saudi Aramco is pumping close to 6 million b/d through the 7 million b/d East-West pipeline to Yanbu, up from about 3.5 million b/d in late September, citing a person familiar with the matter. About 4.5 million b/d is available for export after supplying Saudi Arabia's west-coast refineries. Aramco and the Saudi energy ministry did not respond to requests for comment.
October 1, 2026 · policy confirmed
UK sanctions eight more Russian shadow-fleet and LNG-export ships
The UK government sanctioned eight more vessels tied to Russia's shadow fleet and LNG exports, including the LNG carriers Chaivo, Portovyy, Aleksey Kosygin, Konstantin Posiet and Pyotr Stolypin, plus bunkering and ice-class vessels. The UK said it has now sanctioned nearly 600 tankers used to move Russian energy around Western restrictions, while keeping an exemption for limited Russian LNG shipments to Japan and South Korea through March 2028.
All events →