Situation · September 27, 2026US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026 set off a regional war. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, and it has not reopened to normal traffic, cutting off most Gulf oil and LNG exports; the IEA calls it the largest supply disruption in oil-market history. Retaliatory strikes damaged Gulf energy assets: Qatar lost ~17% of its LNG capacity for 3-5 years at Ras Laffan, Israel hit South Pars, and Saudi (Ras Tanura, SAMREF, Abqaiq, Jazan), Emirati (Fujairah, Shah, Habshan) and Kuwaiti (Mina al-Ahmadi) facilities were hit. An 8 April ceasefire and a 17 June US-Iran MoU briefly revived traffic and pushed oil back to pre-war levels, but the truce collapsed on 7-8 July. Since then the US has blockaded Iranian ports (from 14 July), Iran runs a permit-and-toll regime, and tanker attacks continue. The second front is the Red Sea: the Houthis declared a ban on Saudi shipping from 20 July, struck tankers and the Jazan refinery, and seized Mocha on 10 September. Drones from Iraq hit Abqaiq (27 July) and shut the East-West bypass pipeline (10-11 September), which restarted at reduced rates around 22 September. In the Black Sea, Ukrainian strikes on Russian ports and refineries (Baltic ports in March, Novorossiysk/CPC, Tuapse, Moscow) and Turkey's 8 August permit halt for Novorossiysk-bound ships have cut flows. Policy responses include a record 400 mb IEA stock release (US 172 mb), the UAE's exit from OPEC (1 May) and US consideration of diesel export curbs. US LNG exports are at records as new trains start up (Golden Pass, Corpus Christi Stage 3), and Panama Canal and Trans Mountain flows to Asia have risen. As of 25 September Brent was $104.32 (pre-crisis ~$72.5) and TTF ~€72/MWh (pre-crisis ~€32). On 26 September Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the strait.
US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026 set off a regional war. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, and it has not reopened to normal traffic, cutting off most Gulf oil and LNG exports; the IEA calls it the largest supply disruption in oil-market history. Retaliatory strikes damaged Gulf energy assets: Qatar lost ~17% of its LNG capacity for 3-5 years at Ras Laffan, Israel hit South Pars, and Saudi (Ras Tanura, SAMREF, Abqaiq, Jazan), Emirati (Fujairah, Shah, Habshan) and Kuwaiti (Mina al-Ahmadi) facilities were hit. An 8 April ceasefire and a 17 June US-Iran MoU briefly revived traffic and pushed oil back to pre-war levels, but the truce collapsed on 7-8 July. Since then the US has blockaded Iranian ports (from 14 July), Iran runs a permit-and-toll regime, and tanker attacks continue. The second front is the Red Sea: the Houthis declared a ban on Saudi shipping from 20 July, struck tankers and the Jazan refinery, and seized Mocha on 10 September. Drones from Iraq hit Abqaiq (27 July) and shut the East-West bypass pipeline (10-11 September), which restarted at reduced rates around 22 September. In the Black Sea, Ukrainian strikes on Russian ports and refineries (Baltic ports in March, Novorossiysk/CPC, Tuapse, Moscow) and Turkey's 8 August permit halt for Novorossiysk-bound ships have cut flows. Policy responses include a record 400 mb IEA stock release (US 172 mb), the UAE's exit from OPEC (1 May) and US consideration of diesel export curbs. US LNG exports are at records as new trains start up (Golden Pass, Corpus Christi Stage 3), and Panama Canal and Trans Mountain flows to Asia have risen. As of 25 September Brent was $104.32 (pre-crisis ~$72.5) and TTF ~€72/MWh (pre-crisis ~€32). On 26 September Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the strait.
September 27, 2026 · military reported
Explosions near Qeshm Island after Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz proposal
Explosions were reported near Qeshm Island on 27 September, with anti-ship missiles and drones allegedly fired at transiting vessels, hours after President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the strait. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority has instructed shippers to use an Iranian-approved temporary route and pay fees, threatening to blacklist charterers using other routes.
September 26, 2026 · diplomatic confirmed
Trump rejects Iran's seven-condition plan to reopen Hormuz within a week
At the UN General Assembly Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week if seven conditions were met, including lifting the US blockade, releasing frozen funds and ending attacks on all fronts; Trump rejected it on 26 September. Reuters had reported US and Iranian negotiators in New York exploring a phased deal (strait reopening in exchange for lifting the blockade), which briefly pushed oil prices lower.
September 25, 2026 · military confirmed
Houthis fire missiles at Yanbu and Riyadh; Saudi Arabia intercepts six
Saudi forces said they intercepted six ballistic missiles aimed at Yanbu and Taif on 24 September; on 25 September the Houthis claimed missile and drone strikes on Aramco facilities in Yanbu and a 'sensitive target' in Riyadh. No damage was confirmed. Yanbu is Saudi Arabia's main Red Sea export outlet and the terminus of the East-West pipeline.
September 25, 2026 · shipping reported
Independent ship-tracking shows Hormuz crude flows at a fraction of pre-war levels
Preliminary Kpler data showed 33.7 million barrels of crude leaving the Strait of Hormuz in the week starting 20 September, against roughly 105 million barrels a week before the war (about 15 mb/d of crude in 2025, per IEA analysis of Kpler data). Many tankers now transit with transponders off, so ship-tracking figures are likely to understate actual flows.
September 24, 2026 · diplomatic confirmed
France to deploy troops, radars and air defences to protect Yanbu
President Macron announced France will send soldiers, radar and defence systems to protect energy infrastructure at Yanbu. CTP-ISW reports the US, UK and other partners are also flying air-defence missions over Saudi oil infrastructure; Pakistan and Turkey called military chiefs' meetings under a joint defence agreement.
September 24, 2026 · shipping reported
Indian cargo ship attacked in Hormuz, one sailor killed
An Indian cargo ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, killing a sailor, as attacks on shipping continued despite US assertions that the waterway is open.
September 23, 2026 · policy confirmed
US weighs diesel export curbs as retail diesel hits record ~$6.53/gal
US retail diesel reached a record of about $6.53/gal (AAA, 21-22 Sep), up nearly $1 in a month. Trump said 'let's not send out the diesel' and officials examined export restrictions; by 25 September no policy had been announced and Energy Secretary Wright was gauging refiners' interest in voluntary curbs. The US exports diesel equal to ~40% of domestic consumption, supplying Europe and Latin America.
September 22, 2026 · infrastructure reported
Saudi East-West pipeline restarts at reduced rate; Yanbu loadings to resume
Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline after drone damage to pumping stations, with flows at a reduced rate and Yanbu crude exports expected to resume on 22-23 September, according to sources briefed by Reuters. Aramco and the energy ministry did not comment.
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